England and Scotland may now be out of the World Cup but, believe it or not, there are still reasons to be cheerful, as the home delivery expert Parcelhero is reminding saddened Brits. Many economic indicators show an encouraging uptick.
The home delivery expert Parcelhero says that, while it may be hard to see the positives in life right now, there’s still good news away from the football pitch. The latest official real-time economic indicators paint an encouragingly upbeat picture for UK retailers, small businesses and the transport and logistics firms that keep goods moving between them.
Drawing on this week’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) Economic Activity and Social Change Real-Time Indicators dashboard, Parcelhero says the numbers point to a resilient economy building momentum just as the summer trading season gets underway.
Parcelhero’s Head of Consumer Research, David Jinks M.I.L.T., says: ‘Many of us are feeling gloomy today but, for UK businesses, there’s still everything to play for.
‘Consumer activity is clearly picking up. High Street footfall in the week up to 5 July increased by 5%, while Revolut’s debit card spending index rose by 3% over the same time period. Encouragingly, the proportion of failed Direct Debit payments fell by 2%, according to the latest figures. That’s a sign that household finances are holding up well enough to keep regular spending commitments on track.
‘When footfall climbs and card spending climbs with it, that’s the clearest possible signal that consumers feel confident enough to get out, shop and spend. For retailers who’ve had a tough couple of years, this is exactly the kind of steady, broad-based uptick they’ve been waiting for.
‘Equally important, the latest dashboard shows financial pressures dropping by 1 percentage point and the cost of living by 6 percentage points.
SMEs are growing more confident
‘Better still, for those involved in logistics, business confidence around supply chains is improving. The proportion of firms worried about international conflict disrupting their supply chains has fallen for two months running, down from a peak of 38% in April to 31% in June, while concern about shipping disruption has eased from 25% to 22% over the same period. Businesses are clearly adapting and finding their footing, even against a challenging global backdrop.
Transport and freight are stepping up
‘Transport indicators reinforce the positive story. Cargo and tanker visits to the UK rose by 1% in the week up to 5 July and new vehicle registrations were up 4% in the month up to June, a sign that fleets, including delivery fleets, are being renewed and expanded to meet demand.
‘Freight and logistics are the circulatory system of the economy, and right now that system is working hard and the numbers are going the right way.
Cautious optimism
‘As with any real-time indicators, the data will continue to be refined and some figures, such as the labour market, remain more mixed than others. But taken together, the consumer, business and transport signals point in a consistently positive direction: shoppers spending, small businesses trading with growing confidence, and goods moving in greater volumes than before.
‘Put it all together and you’ve got a strong platform for summer trading. Retailers, SMEs and the delivery networks that support them all have real reasons to feel good about where things stand right now.
‘One certainty is that transport and storage companies partnered with retailers who have strong in-store and online sales will be best placed to weather unpredictable issues such as consumer confidence and global conflicts. Parcelhero has recently released “2030: The High Street Fights Back?”, a follow-up to its widely read 2016 report “2030: The Death of the High Street”. The new report explores how e-commerce growth and disruptions like the pandemic have reshaped town centres over the past decade. Its central finding is that, while the High Street is unlikely to vanish by 2030, it faces a defining moment of transformation.
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